Does the Performance of the SP500 in Both the Last 5 Days, 
and Last 5 Years, indicate that Investors Are Still Bullish

Does the market by being within 10% of the all-time high and being at the upper level of the last 5 days indicate that most of those investing in SP500 listed stocks believe that companies and they will benefit from the international situation?

Does benefitting mean winning the international conflict between Russia, and perhaps China, and most of other countries? Does winning mean eradicating the 144 million people in Russia and somehow restraining China and its 1.4 billion people?

Does winning mean that we, those opposing Russia, will suffer far fewer casualties than our enemy? Would 14.4 million or 10% of Russians died be ok if only 5% of America’s 331 million or 16.55 million died? Is there a U.S./Russia kill ratio which is acceptable?

Is the SP500 P/E ratio of 17, indicating 17 years of static Net-After Tax per share earnings being necessary to equal the present price level, ok?

Assuming the Russians will lose the overall conflict with most other countries, who is going to compensate the people and nation of Ukraine for the disaster caused by Russia?

Will government actions, as made necessary by the conflict, result in higher interest rates and lower currency values?

Will the government expenditures result in higher taxation?

Will China continue to provide manufactured goods available at internationally competitive prices? Will consumers be willing to pay higher prices for goods manufactured in their home countries?

Will America continue to educate foreign students, and not allow them to stay in the country after they receive their degrees?

Will there be international tariff wars, attempting to favor locally produced commodities and manufactured products? Will aircraft landing fees be the same for American and other national airlines?

Will new virus variants continue to be less deadly, though more transmitable? Will there be alternatives to lock-downs that are less commerce damaging?

Will the prosperity of America continue and increase, as the markets would appear to be predicting?

Lots more questions possible.

 

Arthur Lipper, Chairman                   arthurlipper@gmail.com
British far East Holdings Ltd.